| As horse racing handicappers we often get so caught | | | | Your PPI is your "personal proficiency indicator." In |
| up in keeping records of our successful bets that we | | | | other words, look at your last 50 bets and identify |
| lose track of one important key to our own survival in | | | | which category of bets using as many determining |
| the game. I'm talking about ROI. Without a strong ROI | | | | factors as possible, offer the highest return divided by |
| you aren't going to stick around very long. It is | | | | the frequency. You may make more profit on exotic |
| absolutely important that you keep a good cash flow. | | | | bets but is the frequency within a comfortable range |
| Most pros agree that an ROI of 10% is a reasonable | | | | so that a losing streak won't wipe out your bankroll? |
| expectation and anything less can lead to a depletion | | | | Proficiency means staying in the game, not necessarily |
| of bankroll. | | | | making the highest profit. Proficiency means frequency |
| Kelly bettors know that depletion of bankroll for any | | | | with the least fluctuations from a comfortable level. If |
| period of time other than the usual expected | | | | you have experienced a losing streak of 20 bets with |
| fluctuations means a gradual decline leading to tapping | | | | one kind of bet but have maintained a 14% ROI while |
| out. So working at an ROI of say 10% is an absolute | | | | with another kind of bet have maintained an ROI of |
| must. This is why record keeping is so important. | | | | 10%, which bet but only experienced a losing streak of |
| In order to maintain your 10% ROI you must make bets | | | | 10 bets, which bet will offer the best chances for long |
| that have a reasonable percentage of expectancy | | | | range success? Anomalies do occur so the next |
| and payout. A return on investment and return of | | | | losing streak may be 40 bets with the former bet and |
| investment, in other words the profit and frequency. | | | | 20 bets with the latter bet. Common sense tells us that |
| Both categories must be within the realm of | | | | the latter bet, despite the lower ROI is a better bet. |
| expectancy. Knowing which bets are good bets | | | | Your higher strike incidence indicates that it has a |
| based on those two factors is paramount and that is | | | | higher PPI and that is the best place for you to invest |
| where your PPI comes in. | | | | your precious bankroll. |