| Horse racing systems range from the complex to the | | | | will be the favourite. I know this is an over simplification |
| very simple. However most can be divided into those | | | | but it explains my point. |
| that concentrate on a horses form and those that are | | | | If form was really a reliable guide then the majority of |
| based on statistical analysis. | | | | favourites would win the races. In the UK on average |
| To explain a little further if a system requires you to | | | | favourites win around 30% of all races and in some |
| look and back a horse that has run its last 2 races | | | | types of race the figure can be as low as 20% or in |
| over the same distance as today's race and came | | | | others as high as 50%. |
| 2nd or 3rd in both then that is a system based on | | | | Now hopefully you can see where statistics can come |
| form. If a system requires you to back the top | | | | in. These days it is possible to access statistics |
| weighted horse in a handicap race that has more than | | | | regarding not only the horses but their trainers and |
| 10 runners this is based on statistics. These two ideas | | | | jockeys. A horse that has run 26 times and only won |
| are just used as examples and not suggested plans. | | | | once, with a trainer who has a 10% success rate and |
| There are people who favour both options but I think it | | | | a jockey who only wins 5% of the races he rides in |
| is fair to say that the majority of gamblers base their | | | | may not be a good bet. |
| decision on a horses form. This has not always | | | | The truth of the matter is that both form and statistics |
| proved to be the most reliable of methods. When a | | | | have their part to play in making selections. Making |
| betting market is formed book makers tend to the | | | | your choice using form guides is fine but before you |
| opening prices on the form that horses have shown. | | | | make your bets take a look at the statistics it could |
| This in theory means that the horse with the best form | | | | make or save you quite a bit of money. |