| The betting Exchanges such as Betfair give the punter | | | | The answer is simple, look for reasons why it should |
| the opportunity to either back a horse to win or lay a | | | | not win. The first question to ask yourself should be, is |
| horse to lose. Everyone should be able to understand | | | | the horse being asked to do something it has never |
| that it easier to pick a loser in a horse race rather than | | | | done before? |
| the winner. For a start there are going to be more of | | | | Is it carrying more weight, running a longer distance, |
| them. In a fourteen runner race there can only be one | | | | going up a grade? Even running on a left or right |
| winner (not counting a dead heat) but there will be | | | | handed course for the first time could affect the |
| thirteen losers. | | | | favorite's chances of winning. One big factor can be |
| The problem is that when you lay a horse you are | | | | the state of the ground or "going" if the favorite has |
| summing a liability. In simple terms someone thinks the | | | | never won on the ground conditions this could be |
| horse will win and they want to bet on it at say 5/1. | | | | another factor to consider. |
| You think the horse will lose so you accept the wager. | | | | Next look at the main competition, are there other |
| If it loses you pocket the £10 less the exchange | | | | horses in the race that are capable of beating the |
| commission, but if it wins you lose £50. | | | | favorite. Is there any course or distance specialist in |
| Many regular users of Betfair, the leading exchange | | | | the field? Another major clue could be the betting, a |
| company believe that finding favorites that are liable to | | | | yard stick I use is if the favorite is below 2/1 in the |
| lose is the best option. This is not as difficult as it may | | | | betting and the 3rd favorite is no bigger that 6/1 this is |
| at first sound. On average favorites win a little over | | | | worth a closer look. However, if the 2nd favorite is |
| 30% of races which means that 2 out of 3 lose. | | | | more than 6 points bigger than the favorite I tend to |
| By laying favorites you are keeping your liability as low | | | | avoid the race. |
| as possible therefore improving your chances of | | | | There are many horse racing systems on the market |
| making an overall profit. However the question still | | | | today that claim to help you identify potential losing |
| remains how do you find the favorites that are most | | | | favorites, some are good, many are rubbish. |
| likely to lose? | | | | |