| One of the problems with using speed figures to | | | | But all is not lost, because of statistics and trainer stats. |
| handicap horse races is that the horse's condition | | | | To determine how fast a horse will run today, first look |
| changes and speed figures, like all information, has a | | | | at its speed figures in its most recent races, even if |
| shelf life. This is true of all information in life. For | | | | those races were 10 months ago. Next, look at the |
| instance, there was a time when the average life | | | | trainer and see how he or she fares bringing horses |
| expectancy of a 45 year old man was only 65 in the | | | | back from a layoff. If the horse had a figure of 90 in |
| United States. So if you are a 45 year old man, does | | | | its last race, but was given a rest because it didn't |
| that mean your life expectancy today is only 65? Of | | | | perform well in that race, then you must go back to a |
| course not, that figure has changed over the years | | | | time when it did perform well and use that as a guide |
| and that was then, this is now. | | | | to how well the horse can perform, taking age and |
| What does this have to do with speed figures? A | | | | injury information into consideration. |
| horse who averaged a speed figure of 99 last year | | | | Once you have determined how well the horse |
| as a 7 year old does not necessarily have an | | | | performed at the top of its form cycle, the next thing |
| expectancy of a speed figure of 99 today. Once | | | | to look at is how it has done when coming back from |
| again, that was then and this is now. The problem for | | | | a layoff in the past. If you are fortunate enough to |
| a handicapper who is trying to understand how fast a | | | | have that information, then it is a clue as to how well |
| horse can run is how far back to go with the speed | | | | the horse responds to training and whether it needs |
| figures. | | | | real races to condition it. Some horses simply do not |
| The more recently a horse has raced and shown the | | | | respond as well to training as to real competition and |
| ability to be competitive, the more accurate its latest | | | | therefore need several races for conditioning. |
| figure is. While the old rule of thumb of 30 days has | | | | Other horses are easier to condition and can be |
| not always held up, especially with classier horses or | | | | brought back fit and ready to race. The clue to that is |
| trainers who specialize in bringing horses back sharp, it | | | | the past performances. If you cannot see how the |
| still is a figure to use as some kind of gauge. | | | | horse has done off a layoff before, look at the age, |
| On top of the problem of how far back to go with | | | | workouts, and record of the trainer. Also look at the |
| your figures, is the problem of the form cycle itself. | | | | progression or regression of speed figures from its last |
| How many races has the horse had in the last 60 | | | | campaign. Put those clues together to arrive at an idea |
| days and how taxing were they? As you can see, it | | | | of how the horse will race and whether it will achieve |
| becomes impossible to assume that any one figure will | | | | the same speed figures or move ahead or start at a |
| work for shelf life of speed figures. | | | | lower level of achievement. |