| Years ago Dr. Z (Dr. William Ziemba) a mathematics | | | | will usually be evenly distributed among the runners |
| expert, showed that profits could be made by | | | | based on their odds. However, if the board looks like |
| comparing a horses odds, and consequently its | | | | this... |
| chances of actually winning, placing, or showing, to the | | | | 3-5 |
| actual place and show payoff. For instance, if a horse | | | | 2-1 |
| was at even money, using statistics, Dr. Z could predict | | | | 5-1 |
| how likely the horse was to win, place, or show. If a | | | | 6-1 |
| horse was at 8-5 and he knew it had a probability of | | | | 12-1 |
| showing 80% of the time and the show ticket would | | | | There is a possibility that the crowd is so convinced |
| pay $3 it was a profitable bet. | | | | that the second choice at 2-1 will place that they have |
| Betting a horse that pays $3 to show and winning 8 | | | | poured a tone of money into the place pool on this |
| out of ten bets returns $24 for every $20 invested for | | | | one horse and actually made a place bet on the |
| a profit of 20%. His methods are still used today, | | | | favorite a value bet. Look at the difference between |
| though because he published them in his book which | | | | the odds of the second choice at 2-1 and its next |
| was a great success. You can still watch the tote and | | | | nearest competitor, the third choice at 5-1. |
| do the math if you like, but there are easier ways to | | | | When I see odds like that I usually look at the totals in |
| spot potentially good bets in the place and show pools. | | | | the place and show pool. Let's say the place pool |
| Naturally, if you devote the time to learning the | | | | looks like this... |
| formulas and apply them, you will be rewarded | | | | Place Pool Total $1,000 |
| accordingly, but if you just want an easy and fun way | | | | 200 |
| to pick up some good bets at the horse track, here is | | | | 450 |
| what to looks for. | | | | 125 |
| Good place and show bets usually occur when one | | | | 150 |
| horse is thought to be quite a bit better than the rest | | | | 75 |
| of the field and another horse is thought to be better | | | | Obviously, even though the second choice has a lower |
| than the rest of the field but not anywhere near as | | | | probability of placing than the top horse, it has more |
| good as the top horse. The horse with the big | | | | money bet to show on it. This often makes the |
| advantage in speed or class will usually be the big | | | | favorite, a good place bet and the same situation can |
| favorite, often going off at less than even money. | | | | be found in the show pool. It is usually the second |
| The odds may look something like this in a five horse | | | | choice that gets an abundance of money bet on it but |
| field... | | | | once in a while, one of the other horses, the kind that is |
| 3-5 | | | | often in the money but seldom wins, will take a large |
| 4-1 | | | | share of the pool. |
| 9-2 | | | | While there is no guarantee that this situation will be |
| 5-1 | | | | profitable over the long haul and to be more accurate |
| 12-1 | | | | it would pay to do the math, for short term bets, this |
| In most cases this would not render a good situation | | | | does at least offer some edge to the horse player |
| for a place or show bet. The place and show money | | | | looking for value in the pools. |